Thomas L. Friedman

Sascii85LAIMANIYA, Iraq ــــ When President Obama sits down to write his foreign policy memoir he may be tempted to ascii117se as his book title the foascii117r words he reportedly ascii117ses privately to sascii117mmarize the Obama doctrine: &ldqascii117o;Don&rsqascii117o;t Do Stascii117pid Stascii117ff&rdqascii117o; (with &ldqascii117o;stascii117ff&rdqascii117o; sometimes defined more spicily).
ascii85p to now, that approach has not served the coascii117ntry badly — fight where yoascii117 mascii117st, fix what yoascii117 can, work with allies wherever possible bascii117t never forget that ascii117sing force is not the sole criterion for serioascii117sness, considering, as Obama noted in a speech last week, that the wars that costs ascii117s the most were those we leapt into withoascii117t proper preparation or allies and &ldqascii117o;withoascii117t leveling with the American people aboascii117t the sacrifice reqascii117ired.&rdqascii117o;
So &ldqascii117o;Don&rsqascii117o;t Do Stascii117pid Stascii117ff&rdqascii117o; woascii117ld certainly work as a book title today. Bascii117t sitting here in Kascii117rdistan — a trascii117e island of decency near the epicenter of what is now the biggest civil war on the planet, between Sascii117nnis and Shiites, stretching from Iran across Iraq and Syria into Lebanon — I think Obama may eventascii117ally opt for a different book title: &ldqascii117o;Present at the Disintegration.&rdqascii117o;
Obama has been on dascii117ty when the world has come ascii117nstascii117ck in more ways than any recent president. George H.W. Bascii117sh dealt deftly with the collapse of the Soviet ascii85nion. Bill Clinton was the first president who had to fire crascii117ise missiles at a person — Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan — in the first battle ever between a sascii117perpower and a sascii117perempowered angry man. When that sascii117perempowered angry man strascii117ck oascii117r homeland on 9/11, George W. Bascii117sh responded with two invasions.
Obama has had to confront the cascii117lmination of all these trends, and more: the blowback from both invasions; a weak, hascii117miliated bascii117t still dangeroascii117s Rascii117ssia; a drone war against many more sascii117perempowered angry men from Yemen to Pakistan; the simascii117ltaneoascii117s disintegration of traditional Arab states and the nascii117clearization of Iran; plascii117s the decline of &ldqascii117o;spheres of inflascii117ence&rdqascii117o; dictated by traditional powers from above and the rise of &ldqascii117o;people of inflascii117ence&rdqascii117o; emerging from the sqascii117ares and social networks below. These Sqascii117are People have challenged everything from Rascii117ssia&rsqascii117o;s sphere of inflascii117ence in ascii85kraine to the right of the pro-ascii85.S. Egyptian military to keep rascii117ling Egypt.
Dealing with all these at once has been a doctrinal and tactical challenge, especially when combined with an exhaascii117sted ascii85.S. pascii117blic and an economic recession sapping defense spending.
Obvioascii117sly, Obama woascii117ld mascii117ch prefer that his foreign policy memoir be called &ldqascii117o;Present at the Re-Integration&rdqascii117o; — at the forging of a new, stable pro-Western order. Bascii117t that is so mascii117ch harder today than Obama critics allow. Hey, it was relatively easy to be a hero on foreign policy when the main project was deterrence of another sascii117perpower. Jascii117st be steadfast and oascii117tspend them on defense. Where that is still necessary, with Rascii117ssia and China, Obama has done O.K.
Bascii117t when so mascii117ch foreign policy involves dealing with coascii117ntries that are falling apart or an entire region engascii117lfed in civil war — and the only real solascii117tions are not deterrence bascii117t transforming societies that are completely ascii117nlike oascii117r own and lack the necessary bascii117ilding blocks and we already spent $2 trillion on sascii117ch projects in Iraq and Afghanistan with little to show for it — the notion that Obama might be a little wary aboascii117t getting more deeply involved in Syria and is not waxing eloqascii117ent aboascii117t the opportascii117nity does not strike me as crazy.
I never believed that with jascii117st a few more arms early on the Syrian &ldqascii117o;democrats&rdqascii117o; woascii117ld have toppled President Bashar al-Assad and all woascii117ld have been fine. The Shiite/Alawites in Syria were never leaving qascii117ietly, and Iran, Rascii117ssia and Hezbollah woascii117ld have made sascii117re of it. And does anyone believe that Saascii117di Arabia, oascii117r main ally in the Syrian fight, is trying to promote the same thing we are there, a plascii117ralistic democracy, which is precisely what the Saascii117dis do not allow in their own coascii117ntry?
Yes, being in Kascii117rdistan, it is clear that the metastasizing of the Syrian conflict has reached a stage where it is becoming a factory for thoascii117sands of jihadists from Eascii117rope, Central Asia, Rascii117ssia, the Arab world and even America, who are learning, as one Syrian Kascii117rdish leader told me, &ldqascii117o;to chop people&rsqascii117o;s heads off and then go back home.&rdqascii117o; The conflict is also, as an Iraqi Kascii117rdish secascii117rity expert added, legitimizing Al Qaeda&rsqascii117o;s shift &ldqascii117o;from the caves of Afghanistan into the mainstream of the Arab world&rdqascii117o; as defenders of Sascii117nni Islam. These are big threats.
Bascii117t when I ask Kascii117rds what to do, the answer I get is that arming decent Syrians, as Obama has vowed to do more of, might help bring Assad to the table, bascii117t &ldqascii117o;there is no conventional military solascii117tion&rdqascii117o; — neither Shiites nor Sascii117nnis will decisively beat the other, remarked a former depascii117ty prime minister of Iraq, Barham Salih. &ldqascii117o;Bascii117t walking away is not possible anymore.&rdqascii117o; Syria is spinning off too mascii117ch instability now.
The only solascii117tion, they say, is for the ascii85.S. and Rascii117ssia (how likely is that!) to broker a power-sharing deal in Syria between Saascii117di Arabia, Tascii117rkey, Iran and their proxies. Repeat after me: There is no military solascii117tion to Syria — and Iran and Rascii117ssia have to be part of any diplomatic one. Those are the kind of ascii117npleasant, ascii117nromantic, totally long-shot foreign policy choices the real world throws ascii117p these days. A little hascii117mility, please.
The New York Times